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Friday, August 22, 2008, 07:00 PM: Simulations of Society with Loren Cobb
Loren Cobb will present his peculiar 15-year journey into sociological model-making for various military entities, including US Southern Command, the Swedish Ministry of Defence, the British Ministry of Defence, the United Nations, and a miscellany of Latin American countries (Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, ...).
More...
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Economics
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Harnessing quantum interference enables single aromatic annulene molecules to function as transistors.
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 The tributes to Sanford I. Weill line the walls of the carpeted hallway that leads to his skyscraper office, with its panoramic view of Central Park. A dozen framed magazine covers, their colors as vivid as an Andy Warhol painting, are the most arresting. Each heralds Mr. Weill’s genius in assembling Citigroup into the most powerful financial institution since the House of Morgan a century ago.
His achievement required political clout, and that, too, is on display. Soon after he formed Citigroup, Congress repealed a Depression-era law that prohibited goliaths like the one Mr. Weill had just put together anyway, combining commercial and investment banking, insurance and stock brokerage operations. A trophy from the victory — a pen that President Bill Clinton used to sign the repeal — hangs, framed, near the magazine covers.
These days, Mr. Weill and many of the nation’s very wealthy chief executives, entrepreneurs and financiers echo an earlier era — the Gilded Age before World War I — when powerful enterprises, dominated by men who grew immensely rich, ushered in the industrialization of the United States.
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Room-temperature single-electron transistors are realized within individual metallic single-wall carbon nanotube molecules. The devices feature a short (down to ~20 nanometers) nanotube section that is created by inducing local barriers into the tube with an atomic force microscope. Coulomb charging is observed at room temperature, with an addition energy of 120 millielectron volts, which substantially exceeds the thermal energy. At low temperatures, we resolve the quantum energy levels corresponding to the small island. We observe unconventional power-law dependencies in the measured transport properties for which we suggest a resonant tunneling Luttinger-liquid mechanism.
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Cellphones, microchips, cars, even iPhones—there's virtually no high-tech Western product that China's cloners can't copy. Pretty soon, you might even prefer their work.
The little gadget was bootleg gold, a secret treasure I'd spent months tracking down. The miniOne looked just like Apple's iPhone, down to the slick no-button interface. But it was more. It ran popular mobile software that the iPhone wouldn't. It worked with nearly every worldwide cellphone carrier, not just AT&T, and not only in the U.S. It promised to cost half as much as the iPhone and be available to 10 times as many consumers. The miniOne's first news teases—a forum posting, a few spy shots, a product announcement that vanished after a day—generated a frenzy of interest online. Was it real? When would it go on sale? And most intriguing, could it really be even better than the iPhone?
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As the U.S. banking system continues to get into more trouble, the government has responded by buying up stake in the failing companies. But Robert Reich reports the governments doing the owning are overseas.
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Transistors are the basic building blocks of integrated circuits. To use nanotubes in future circuits it is essential to be able to make transistors from them. We have successfully fabricated and tested nanotube transistors using individual multi-wall or single-wall nanotubes as the channel of a field-effect transistor (FET).
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Banks are failing to provide consumers with information about fees on savings and checking accounts even though federal rules require such disclosures.
Some of the invisible fees have climbed substantially in recent years. The average overdraft fee, for instance, increased 11 percent from 2000 to 2007.
Staff made undercover visits to 185 branches of 154 depository institutions throughout the country and were unable to get comprehensive lists of checking and savings account fees at more than a one-fifth of the locations. The information was not available on the Web sites of half of the institutions.
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MIT professor Neil Gershenfeld offers a glimpse at life after the digital revolution by sharing some of the projects created in Fab Labs - low-cost fabrication labs that encourage invention and production on a local level. (Recorded February 2006 in Monterey, CA. Duration: 18:04)
Video, 18:04
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 Photons rarely interact—which makes it challenging to build all-optical devices in which one light signal controls another. Even in nonlinear optical media, in which two beams can interact because of their influence on the medium's refractive index, this interaction is weak at low light levels. Here, we propose a novel approach to realizing strong nonlinear interactions at the single-photon level, by exploiting the strong coupling between individual optical emitters and propagating surface plasmons confined to a conducting nanowire. We show that this system can act as a nonlinear two-photon switch for incident photons propagating along the nanowire, which can be coherently controlled using conventional quantum-optical techniques. Furthermore, we discuss how the interaction can be tailored to create a single-photon transistor, where the presence (or absence) of a single incident photon in a 'gate' field is sufficient to allow (or prevent) the propagation of subsequent 'signal' photons along the wire.
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Multicore chips could bring about the biggest change in computing since the microprocessor. By Brian Hayes.
The pace of change in computer technology can be breathtaking—and sometimes infuriating. You bring home a new computer, and before you can get it plugged in you're hearing rumors of a faster and cheaper model. In the 30 years since the microprocessor first came on the scene, computer clock speeds have increased by a factor of a thousand (from a few megahertz to a few gigahertz) and memory capacity has grown even more (from kilobytes to gigabytes).
Through all this frenzy of upgrades and speed bumps, one aspect of computer hardware has remained stubbornly resistant to change. Until recently, that new computer you brought home surely had only one CPU, or central processing unit—the computer-within-the-computer where programs are executed and calculations are performed.
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 "In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India’s turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, the global economy encompassed six billion people. Had China, India and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, the global economy would have had 3.3 billion people." As Smith adds: "The 'before' and 'after' picture was of a worldwide workforce of 1.46 billion in 2000, swollen to 2.93 billion as a result of China (760 million), India (440 million) and the ex-Soviet states (260 million)."
China’s growth was proclaimed as 'unique'. Moreover, they projected an ascending line – a linear growth – of Chinese economic expansion into the future. Within an expansion averaging between 8% and 9%, stretching over 23 years, China has undoubtedly had a major effect in prolonging the present upward cycle of world capitalism.
But this growth is not at all 'unique'. In fundamentals it is little different to the experience of the Asian 'Tigers' more than 20 years ago. Stimulated by land reform – removing the residual elements of feudalism – under US occupation and with favourable treatment, Japan averaged a growth rate of 8% between 1950 and 1980, sometimes reaching an annual rate of 13%. The economy doubled in size every six years and something similar occurred in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
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We give a detailed discussion of the Quantum Interference Effect Transistor (QuIET), a proposed device which exploits interference between electron paths through aromatic molecules to modulate current flow. In the off state, perfect destructive interference stemming from the molecular symmetry blocks current, while in the on state, current is allowed to flow by locally introducing either decoherence or elastic scattering. Details of a model calculation demonstrating the efficacy of the QuIET are presented, and various fabrication scenarios are proposed, including the possibility of using conducting polymers to connect the QuIET with multiple leads.
PDF, 12 pages
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Scientists at the Technion–Israel Institute of Technology have harnessed the power of DNA to create a self-assembling nanoscale transistor, the building block of electronics. The research is a crucial step in the development of nanoscale devices.
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The Bank for International Settlements has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump.
"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank.
The BIS pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.
It said China's growth was "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable", borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao
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When a self-sufficient society opens to the market economy, new economic inequalities appear. A subjective factor influences decisively in the configuration of these inequalities: patience. Impatient people tend to underestimate the value of education, that entails greater likelihood of working in wage labor in the long run.
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Most countries seem to have finally whipped inflation—at least for now. But not everyone is celebrating the world’s impressive economic stability. In today’s List, FP takes a hard look at the soft currencies of some of the most unstable economies on the planet. Somalia. Iraq. North Korea. Venezuela. Zimbabwe.
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Members of an unknown Amazon Basin tribe and their dwellings are seen during a flight over the Brazilian state of Acre along the border with Peru in this May, 2008 photo distributed by FUNAI, the government agency for the protection of indigenous peoples. Survival International estimates that there are over 100 uncontacted tribes worldwide, and says that uncontacted tribes in the region are under increasing threat from illegal logging over the border in Peru.
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Antique store owners in lower Manhattan, ticket vendors at India's Taj Mahal and Brazilian business executives heading to China all have one thing in common these days: They don't want U.S. dollars. At the Taj Mahal, dollars were always legal tender, alongside rupees, for entry into the palace. But because of the falling value of the dollar, the government implemented a rupees-only policy a month ago. Indian merchants catering to tourists have also turned bearish on the dollar. In Bolivia, billboards feature George Washington's image on a $1 bill alongside a bright pink 500 euro note. "If the dollar's going down ... save it in Euros!!!"
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Several "once in 100,000 years" events "cost billions and point to flaws in the design of quantitative trading strategies" was how one learned analysis explained the subprime mortgage fiasco this summer. This was highbrow talk for lowbrow greed that piled one sleight-of-hand scam upon another in an international Ponzi scheme that began unraveling in June.
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Tom Stern's book CEO Dad: How To Avoid Getting Fired By Your Family ($20, Davies-Black Publishing, 2007) is vying to displace Dilbert as the dominant workplace comic strip by combining office gags with self-help psycho-babble. With Stern's success taking root so quickly, it's only fair to start the backlash now. It's not that there's anything offensive in CEO Dad. The problem, rather, is that there's nothing offensive in CEO Dad. There's no pathos here. It's more brand than book.
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Stories of the unintended consequences of market forces.
Host Ira Glass talks to reporter John Bowe about the story of John Nash Pickle, who ran a company in Tulsa, Oklahoma that made steel tanks used in the oil industry. According to 52 Indian men whom Pickle hired and brought to America, Pickle was trying to compete with foreign companies, doing something most companies never try. Instead of simply opening a factory overseas with cheap labor, the men say, Pickle decided to run an overseas factory with cheap labor...on American soil...inside his own Tulsa Oklahoma plant.
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When Richard Branson was at school, his headmaster predicted he would wind up either a millionaire or in jail. Since then, he's done both. Here he talks to TED's Chris Anderson about the ups and the downs of his career, from his multibillionaire success to his multiple near-death experiences, from Virgin's line of spacecraft to the failure of the Virgin condom. He also reveals some of his (very surprising) motivations.
Video, 30:03
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According to a report by the People's Daily Overseas Edition, unemployment might remain a headache in China in the next 15 years, as the demand for jobs has been greatly underestimated.
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For someone who has been working in and around the supply chain for more than 25 years, Lawrence "David" Davis sometimes sounds, well, not like a supply chain kind of guy. He talks about "genetic algorithms" and "evolutionary computation" and "deterministic simulation," which at first blush might seem to have little to do with running a company's supply chain.
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The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.
Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.
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When bad things happen, it's always nice to have a scapegoat. So, with Americans furious about soaring oil prices, Congress has gone in search of someone to blame. There are a number of usual suspects to choose from, depending on your politics—OPEC, greedy oil companies, lily-livered environmentalists opposed to oil drilling—but now Congress has seized on another set of villains: commodity speculators. "Excessive market speculation," in the words of Senator Joseph Lieberman, has supposedly inflated the price of oil and other commodities beyond reason. Curb speculation, as a raft of proposed laws intend to do, and oil prices will soon return to earth.
Speculation has been a favorite target of politicians looking to mollify anxious voters since the time of ancient Greece, when the orator Lysias protested that wheat traders had reduced Athens to a "state of siege."
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According to this list, 64 countries are in surplus, while 99 countries are in deficit.
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A bloody conflict between Hispanic and black gangs is spreading across Los Angeles. Hundreds are dying as whole districts face the threat of ethnic cleansing. Paul Harris reports from the epicentre of America's new urban warfare.
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"Mattel takes full responsibility for these recalls and apologizes personally to you, the Chinese people, and all of our customers who received the toys," Thomas A. Debrowski, Mattel's executive vice president for worldwide operations, told China's product safety chief, Li Changjang.
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This week’s Global Business steps into the intriguing world of “Wikinomics”. It’s all centred on the huge new possibilities of collaboration across time and space brought about the internet. The best known example of Wikinomics is, of course, the Wikipedia. The freely available internet encyclopaedia created by thousands of different writers has eight million articles in 250 languages, which anyone can add to or edit. But now here is Wikinomics: the art of collaboration using the internet in all sorts of businesses and organisations. Peter Day talks to the Canadian management consultant, Don Tapscott who has just authored a book called “Wikinomics.”
Audio, 23 minutes
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Canada's foreign affairs minister says he wants to crack down on Chinese spies who are stealing industrial and high-technology secrets at a tremendous cost to the economy.
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Russia intends to become an alternative global financial centre and to make the rouble a reserve currency for central banks.
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Standard economics assumes that people base their decisions on real value only and take changes in price tags properly into account. For example, a rational consumer is assumed to base his shopping decisions on “real” prices (e.g., how many hours do I have to work for a loaf of bread?) and would not change his consumption patterns if all “nominal” prices were to move in proportion (e.g. are inflated by the same factor). Yet, normal people are often confused by purely nominal changes.
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Business innovation is vital for corporate survival, but is innovation best left to companies? Peter Day hears from the innovators who say that it is the users of goods and services who generate the best ideas, and now's the time to make innovation a truly open and collaborative process.
Audio, 29 minutes
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With the revived comprehensive immigration reform bill expected to come up before the Senate this week, several high-tech companies like Microsoft have mounted a campaign to get more foreign skilled workers into the United States.
Bill Gates and Steven A. Ballmer of Microsoft have led a parade of high-tech executives to Capitol Hill, urging lawmakers to provide more visas for temporary foreign workers and permanent immigrants who can fill critical jobs. Google has reminded senators that one of its founders, Sergey Brin, came from the Soviet Union as a young boy.
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Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland
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Jack Handey, author of the popular deep thoughts, would have a tough time making it in today's business world. Why? Because it's not what you think, it's not how good you are, it's ultimately who you know.
I first began to realize that in 1995 when I was an electrical engineering student at the University of Kentucky. I applied for a co-op position at Lexmark, and never heard anything back.
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Measures of well-being collected by the Gallup World Poll reveal differences in how reform and growth appear to be affecting everyday life for each population. Of those surveyed, the Chinese (84%) were more likely than Indians (56%) to say that they were able to spend their time the day before the survey as they pleased. More Chinese than Indians said they were treated with respect the previous day (85% versus 69%, respectively), and more were proud of something that they accomplished that day (40% versus 33% of Indians). In other areas, however, Indians seemed more positive. Fewer Indians (12%) than Chinese (21%) claimed to have experienced a lot of boredom on the day preceding the survey, while more Indians (64% versus 51% of Chinese) said that they ate good tasting food the day before the survey. Slightly more Indians (65%) than Chinese (58%) said they would like to have more days just like yesterday.
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India's software and services exports are estimated to have grown 32 percent to 31.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2006-07.
India's revenues from software and services will reach the 50 billion U.S. dollar mark in 2007-08.
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If Ben Bernanke manages to save the financial system from collapse, he will — rightly — be praised for his heroic efforts.
But what we should be asking is: How did we get here?
Why does the financial system need salvation?
Why do mild-mannered economists have to become superheroes?
The answer, at a fundamental level, is that we’re paying the price for willful amnesia. We chose to forget what happened in the 1930s.
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Check-overdraft fees and fees for insufficient funds in an account both rose about 11 percent over the GAO's study period, 2000 to 2007.
Stop-payment checking fees rose 17 percent.
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Youths addicted to online games have found ways to earn their living, by slaving away - often literally - quarrying, scalping and even stealing the virtual equipment of the games. These are precious and costly - in real or virtual terms - weapons, rank, robes and accessories.
This virtual thievery is very real and does not bode well for the future of the young robbers who are plunged into online larceny. They themselves are often the victims of bosses who virtually enslave them for 12 hours a day.
It's time for the government to ban and for gamers to boycott unidentified transactions for virtual weapons and accessories - because an underground network of theft may well lie at its heart.
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Some of you may have heard about a new drug called DCA that has flooded the Internet with buzz, conspiracy theories and frantic blog posts. For those who haven’t heard about it, it's a drug that was recently discovered to shrink tumors in rats and kill cancerous human cells (in a petri dish). Long story short- it isn't getting the funding it needs for real human testing and FDA approval. Because it's so cheap to make and not patentable, pharmaceutical companies won't touch it. It's a poor investment. It might not end up passing human trials at all, but if the testing is never done will we ever know?
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If you’re still harboring the notion that the economy is "good," prepare to be disabused.
Median income rose 1.1 percent last year, to $46,326, the first increase since it peaked in 1999. But the entire increase is attributable to the 23 million households headed by someone over age 65. So the gain is likely from investment income and Social Security, not wages and salaries.
The share of the population now in poverty — 12.6 percent — is still higher than at the trough of the last recession, when it was 11.7 percent. And among the poor, 43 percent were living below half the poverty line in 2005 — $7,800 for a family of three. That’s the highest percentage of people in “deep poverty” since the government started keeping track of those numbers in 1975.
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Mexico's telecoms tycoon Carlos Slim has overtaken Bill Gates to become the world's richest person, according to a respected Mexican financial website.
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Higher IQ makes them more tolerant of risk.
Assuming someone gave you the choice of 100 euros today or 150 euros in a year's time. Which sum would you take? Scientists asked 1000 adults this question. At the same time they measured the cognitive abilities of the participants, using two different methods. The result was that intelligent people prefer to wait for a higher return, rather than going for the money now. This is the first time that this relationship between intelligence and patience in financial matters has been shown. Furthermore, the willingness to run risks increases with higher intelligence.
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Homeless women have become more prevalent in Boulder's shelter this winter — making up about 25 percent of the population served there. Traditionally, about 85 percent of those lined up outside the 4869 N. Broadway shelter are men. "We are serving more women than ever before," Harms said. "And I am not sure why."
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"The old view of career, as being based on a stable and life-long engagement in a onetime choice of occupation, is no longer valid. Instead of seeing career as a destination, it should be viewed as a journey that is constantly unfolding."
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Women of all educational levels from 21 to 30 living in New York City and working full time made 117 percent of men’s wages, and even more in Dallas, 120 percent. Nationwide, that group of women made much less: 89 percent of the average full-time pay for men.
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Basically, the non-health job market is in free-fall. I suspect that when the BLS issues the next round of revisions to the job numbers, the picture will look even worse.
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Some Western European countries are getting serious about transporting consumer goods through automated subterranean networks – introducing a fifth transport mode next to road, rail, air and water. This rare combination of low-tech sense and high-tech knowledge could lead to a further economic growth without destroying the environment and the quality of life. Super fast underground cargo transport is a favourite subject of futurologists. Yet, the key to the feasibility of the proposed systems is their very low but constant speed.
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There is a growing structural imbalance between the demand for information technologists and supply. Rapid growth in IT, especially in the U.S., has caused companies to outsource a large share of IT jobs, as well as take advantage of the increasingly controversial H1-B program to import extra workers. Notwithstanding the upheaval this has caused in the domestic IT job market in the last five years, it will provide only a temporary fix as cheaper workers are consumed and salaries are equalized globally.
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Experts Discuss Ways to Stem the Brain Drain.
A panel of experts recently shared ideas on how the United States can prepare itself to compete in the ever-changing global economy.
"We need to change the perception of engineering," said Sciulli. "One of our greatest challenges is to prep engineers in topics that are considered 'soft' by some—public speaking, leadership and writing," he said.
Panel members said it's not enough anymore to be a technical genius, you have to be able to develop a business plan and execute it, too.
"It's a new world out there and we need to understand how important engineers and scientists are," Faletra said. "Scientists and engineers make up less than 5 percent of the population but create up to 50 percent of our gross domestic product."
But in the disciplines underpinning our high-tech economy—engineering, math, and science—America is steadily losing its global edge.
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In any kind of acquisition, the hunted see their valuations move up and that is not good news for people who like to apply Darwinism as a concept to understand price behaviour in the financial markets. The theory of natural selection by Charles Darwin has been considered the fundamental theory of evolution where species with favourable traits are more likely to survive and reproduce than those with unfavourable traits. If Darwin’s theory is to explain price behaviour in financial markets, then the acquirer should show a higher rise in its market capitalisation compared to the one that is being acquired. Is something wrong with the way we apply Darwinism to financial markets? Ask Vernor Vinge, a science fiction author and a mathematician/computer scientist who is better known for his theory of Singularity where he has made a mathematical prediction that technology will acquire human-like smartness by 2025.
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It is already the world's biggest country, spanning 11 time zones and stretching from Europe to the far east. But yesterday Russia signalled its intention to get even bigger by announcing an audacious plan to annex a vast 460,000 square mile chunk of the frozen and ice-encrusted Arctic.
According to Russian scientists, there is new evidence backing Russia's claim that its northern Arctic region is directly linked to the North Pole via an underwater shelf.
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MICHAEL CRONIN’s job as a college admissions officer took him to India two or three times a year, so he had already seen the usual sites — temples, monuments, markets — when one day he happened across a flier advertising “slum tours.”
“It just resonated with me immediately,” said Mr. Cronin, who was staying at a posh Taj Hotel in Mumbai where, he noted, a bottle of Champagne cost the equivalent of two years’ salary for many Indians. “But I didn’t know what to expect.”
Soon, Mr. Cronin, 41, found himself skirting open sewers and ducking to avoid exposed electrical wires as he toured the sprawling Dharavi slum, home to more than a million.
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New York follows a 24-hour schedule, as if it were always awake to connect to the rest of the globe. Mumbai, India, ranks 24th as the origin of calls into Manhattan, and 11th in calls into Queens. Toronto, Canada, is one of the main destinations for calls out of Manhattan, but accounts for only 1 percent of calls from the Bronx. Global talk happens both at the top of the economy and at its lower end. The vast middle layers of our society are far less global; the middle talks mostly nationally and locally. Compared with London, New York has a more global reach into Asian and South American hubs such as Beijing, Bogotá and Riyadh, and London has more of a reach into Europe and the United States. Perhaps London's relationship to Europe is analogous to what is conventionally believed to be New York's relationship to the whole of the United States.
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Surprise! Home Sales Spark Hope – Forbes
Unsold home inventory more than doubles to 16.8 months – Business Journal
Home Resales and Prices Decline – New York Times
So apparently Forbes thinks this news of growing inventories and dropping prices is GREAT NEWS and investors should jump in. They cite as evidence today’s rally on Wall Street as people believe we’re seeing the bottom.
When shitty news is good news, you know you’ve turned the corner from desperate to delusional.
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Back in November, I wrote a brief article describing how I expected the financial meltdown underway to continue, and how I expected it to impact the real economy. Below I'm reprinting the 10 predictions I made and I've put in italics those which have already occurred.
1) Housing prices and sales will continue to decline. Expect 3 years before the bottom, as a very optimistic best case scenario.
2) Commerical real-estate will suffer a steep decline as well.
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US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.
Source: NBER
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Underlying nearly all discussions of the oil price is a standard economic concept: supply and demand. It seems so elementary that there is no doubt of it. It says that demand has been growing more rapidly than supply recently and that at some point the world will reach Peak Oil and the price will zoom northwards.
But the reality is more complex. Peak oil is not just a point in time or even a plateau when oil supply becomes unable to expand to meet demand. We need a more nuanced model for oil prices that includes several other factors.
First, there is the role of speculators.
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Citic Securities and other brokerages benefited from a stock boom last year, when more than 60.4 million investment accounts were opened, up more than 11-fold. The securities company may face challenges maintaining growth as China's benchmark CSI 300 Index has slid 22 percent this year, damping trading.
"The crazy growth phase for China's brokers has gone."
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This page contains the chapter-by-chapter listing of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule and general notes. The links below correspond to the various sections in the Table of Contents for the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. Clicking on a link will load the corresponding Adobe .pdf file
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