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Evolution: Random or Directed?

Evolution is a random process -- or is it? I ask this because we all can name examples of convergent evolution where very different organisms arrived at similar solutions to the challenges they are faced with. One such example is the striking morphological similarities between sharks (marine fishes) and dolphins (marine mammals). Thus, based on observations of convergent evolution, one is tempted to hypothesize that, even if the mutations that underlie evolution itself are random, the "end result" of evolution is not. In fact, this is the central premise of an interesting book by Simon Conway Morris, Life's Solution, where he postulates that "the evolutionary routes are many, but the destinations are limited". This is in direct conflict with the late Stephen Jay Gould's hypothesis that a far different evolutionary outcome would occur if we could only replay the "tape of life". So which is it? Of course, replaying this tape of life is impossible, except when the organisms being studied have a fast enough generation time that we can watch their evolution during our own lifetimes.

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(C) 2007 Boulder Future Salon and the Acceleration Studies Foundation.