By "The Singularity", what we're really talking about is Vernor Vinge's "Singularity". You probably thought this was Ray Kurzweil's idea. After all, he wrote the book (literally -- he wrote The Singularity Is Near). But no. Actually, Ray Kurzweil is the popularizer, but not the inventor, of the "Singularity" concept. Vernor Vinge actually invented the concept in 1993. Actually, no, Vernor Vinge wasn't the inventor of the concept, either -- that was I. J. Good, in 1965. Vinge just came up with idea of using the word "Singularity" to label the concept.

Vernor Vinge wrote in 1993:

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

* There may be developed computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
* Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
* Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
* Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.

The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for the last thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)

What are the consequences of this event?

http://mindstalk.net/...